American Energy Collapse Incoming

The Red Horse rides and the Black Horse is not far behind.

For years, I've been asking hard questions about how much energy we have left to extract and process. This is a tough question to answer, and it's also one that people do not want to answer.

If you are paid to produce oil, you will not want to tell people when that oil will be no longer available. You even convince yourself that we will never run out. This is all too human, and completely irresponsible.

However, there are times when the information that you need leaks out. And, the news is catastrophic. It's more proof that our civilization is ending.

————————————

Keep this ministry alive with a donation.

And, read my books and guides for free:

https://revelationsix.com/books/

I created five Android Apps that will help you read through the Bible in a Year. You can find them here:

https://revelationsix.com/android-apps/

If you miss my rantings about geopolitics, idiocy, resource collapse and incompetent globalism, follow me on X @revelation_six.

————————————

Hey Everyone,

I was five days in the hospital and got out ten days ago. Recovering from that was hard. But, dying from an infection is worse, so praise God for hospitals.

When you have my version of Leukemia (CLL), your wounds don't heal well, and you are also immunocompromised. And, when you take showers in water that you need to boil to drink, you can guess how my wound got a really bad infection that could have gone into septicemia. I also had a 105°F (40.4°+C) fever that probably cooked my brain a little too long. I've never had something go that bad that quickly. Praise God that I got to the hospital in time.

I also have a ton of stories about my stay, and every single one of them is a morality tale about how much you need to avoid being admitted to a hospital. The nurses and doctors were great, the beds were awful. They did a great job, and that's all I'm going to say, except that it took days to recover at home. I almost am back to feeling my age. And yes, that's an improvement.

Okay, where were we...

American Energy Collapse Incoming

A couple days after getting out of the hospital, I saw a graph that I had hoped to never see:

Future American Oil Production from the Top Three Basins

By the way 'PUD Oil' means Proved Undeveloped Reserves. These are US oil fields that are proven to be able to produce oil, but have not been drilled yet.

Now, why does that graph represent such a complete disaster?

Well, the first thing that you need to know is that these are all wells and reserves that require hydraulic fracturing to get the oil out of the ground. And fracked wells die out very quickly. Within one year production falls off rapidly. So think of it like poor Sisyphus rolling that rock up the hill, only to have it roll back down again... forever.

These wells are also expensive to drill and maintain. If oil stays below $80/barrel, new wells won't be drilled, and drilled wells will be capped. Furthermore, we have already drilled out most of the first tier areas in the Permian Basin. There's a reason why Permian Basin oil production will be dropping even though there appears to be so much oil still available.

What's left is far too expensive to drill at current oil prices. And, you don't want oil prices to to be high enough to make drilling those wells viable.

Now, most of you live in wealthy countries that can probably adjust to higher fuel cost. And you will probably be the last to be affected by these declines.

Why?

Because we will buy up what the Third World cannot afford to pay. Yes, we will suffer a deep recession and eventually a depression, but the Third World will simply collapse. But, let's look at some more graphs to make my point.

You already got an eyeful from my previous post. So, I will avoid repeating those graphs, and we'll start with all those wonderful wells that saved us from collapse when conventional oil production hit its peak in 2005. This is what oil production from a fracked oil well looks like over time:

Fracked Wells - production over time

But that just gives you a general idea. Here are the harder numbers:

Wells in the first year of production are at 100% of capacity. The next year, production is down to 32%, and then 19% and then... well, you can see the graphs for yourselves. And, the die-off isn't just for oil, it's also for Natural Gas.

Here's a graph about Natural Gas:

If you leased out a plot of your land for a natural gas well, here's how quickly your share of the profits would decline. You will have lost two thirds of the value within a year. That's how fast natural gas production dies off. And may I remind you that without natural gas, you don't get fertilizer, and without fertilizer, six billion people starve to death.

Oh wait, what was that?

Did someone say something about other oil producers than the US?

Well, Saudi Arabia has already told us that they've hit peak oil at 12 million barrels/day. The problem is that their costs have been going up. Here's the price of oil that they need to just break even:

Saudi Arabia is in deep trouble. Part of the problem is that foolish Neom project which is being consumed by all kinds of corruption and graft. (I have inside sources on that project.) But, even without foolish spending, Saudi is in trouble. Deep trouble. And if Saudi is in trouble...

Who else is in the same kind of trouble?

Pretty much everyone.

And, just in case you needed a bit of extra convincing, here's a nice little chart that requires the use of oil at ever point in it:

Think of how much oil is consumed to excavate all of those vital resources. And what happens when that oil starts to go away? That's right, you stop getting what you think that you need. And if you think that you need something and have the morals of a rodent, you will get a gun and take it from someone else.

We call this war.

Ukraine was the beginning. We are already seeing 'rebel groups' take over vital resource deposits and charging a fee for their extraction. And if that isn't enough we have countries like Rawanda invading their neighbor, the 'Democratic' Republic of Congo and making resource extraction impossible. And we're going to see this everywhere.

Welcome to the ride of the Red Horse. The Black Horse is not far behind.

----------------------------------

For those who want a closer look, go here:

The Status of U.S. Oil Production: 2024 Update Everything Shines By Dimming
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-07-03/the-status-of-u-s-oil-production-2024-update-everything-shines-by-dimming/

Production decline curve analysis of shale oil wells: A case study of Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995822624002139

Energy Skeptic: Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
https://energyskeptic.com/

You'll hafta hold your nose a bit over some of their opinions. But the data is painful to see.

Pray for the peace of Jerusalem.
שאלו שלום ירושלים

————————————

My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge.
Because you have rejected knowledge,
I also will reject you... Hosea 4:6

————————————

Keep this ministry alive with a donation.

And, read my books and guides for free:

https://revelationsix.com/books/

I created five Android Apps that will help you read through the Bible in a Year. You can find them here:

https://revelationsix.com/android-apps/

If you miss my rantings about geopolitics, idiocy, resource collapse and incompetent globalism, follow me on X @revelation_six.

————————————